A recession, or contraction in gross economic activity, is generally defined as two quarters of negative growth. And the past year's increase in bankruptcies and foreclosures has tipped the odds toward such a contraction occurring.
Many families will continue to lose their homes in the coming year, said Serdar Bankaci, president of Default Research, which tracks foreclosures in key Florida markets. "There is no end in sight for Florida foreclosures in 2008," he said, though South Florida will suffer the most.
The slumping housing market and related global credit crunch have boosted the odds of a national recession to 50-50 or greater, according to a number of analysts, though Snaith still expects Orlando's gross metro product to surpass $82 billion this year, up from $79.6 billion in 2007.
Consumer psychology has definitely played a large role in slowing the economy, said Chris Hurn, president and chief executive officer of Mercantile Commercial Capital LLC, a commercial lender in Altamonte Springs that focuses on small businesses.
But many of the numbers being generated by the economy are still healthy by historic standards and do not justify a totally dour outlook, he said, especially in the Orlando area.
"Unemployment is still very low," Hurn noted, and with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and boosting financial liquidity, access to capital for business expansions and consumer spending should keep the economic engine running in 2008.
Hurn said his own company made more than $100 million in small business loans last year to entrepreneurs seeking to buy or build their own facilities. That was up about 20 percent from the year before.
About one-fifth of that $100 million went to small businesses in Central Florida such as restaurants and office condominiums, Hurn said, and while he expects many things to challenge his company's momentum in 2008, his answer to the threat of recession is simple:
"We're just working harder. Absolutely, that's what you have to do."
Jerry W. Jackson can be reached at jwjackson@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5721.
Many families will continue to lose their homes in the coming year, said Serdar Bankaci, president of Default Research, which tracks foreclosures in key Florida markets. "There is no end in sight for Florida foreclosures in 2008," he said, though South Florida will suffer the most.
The slumping housing market and related global credit crunch have boosted the odds of a national recession to 50-50 or greater, according to a number of analysts, though Snaith still expects Orlando's gross metro product to surpass $82 billion this year, up from $79.6 billion in 2007.
Consumer psychology has definitely played a large role in slowing the economy, said Chris Hurn, president and chief executive officer of Mercantile Commercial Capital LLC, a commercial lender in Altamonte Springs that focuses on small businesses.
But many of the numbers being generated by the economy are still healthy by historic standards and do not justify a totally dour outlook, he said, especially in the Orlando area.
"Unemployment is still very low," Hurn noted, and with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and boosting financial liquidity, access to capital for business expansions and consumer spending should keep the economic engine running in 2008.
Hurn said his own company made more than $100 million in small business loans last year to entrepreneurs seeking to buy or build their own facilities. That was up about 20 percent from the year before.
About one-fifth of that $100 million went to small businesses in Central Florida such as restaurants and office condominiums, Hurn said, and while he expects many things to challenge his company's momentum in 2008, his answer to the threat of recession is simple:
"We're just working harder. Absolutely, that's what you have to do."
Jerry W. Jackson can be reached at jwjackson@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5721.
