CONNECTICUT, USA — As Connecticut tip-toes into reopening, data from the Department of Public Health is showing some positive signs.
In total there have been 39,208 confirmed Coronavirus cases in Connecticut. The state added 191 cases Thursday, the lowest single-day number since March 26 when 129 new cases were reported. Back on that date there were only 1,012 confirmed cases in the state.
It should be noted that the current daily average for the past 14 days sits at more than 500 new cases per day.
The hospitalization curve
Connecticut has seen 28 days of hospitalization decline, with the exception of one small uptick midway on May 4.
On May 21, DPH reported 816 people in Connecticut hospitals for COVID-19. That is 71 fewer people in the hospital than the day before, and 1,156 fewer than the peak of 1,972 people in the hospital on April 22.The last time hospitalizations were this low was April 1.
The governor and his reopening committee have pointed to total hospitalizations as the key metric because it represents the number of people sick enough to need to be in the hospital.
For example, the administration has shied away from total number of new cases because Increased testing could lead to a higher number of positive cases, when those cases may be people who are asymptomatic and not needing treatment.
Many have asked FOX61 if the hospitalization number is decreasing because people are recovering, or if the decline is attributed to deaths. Unfortunately we don't have all the data to be able to determine that.
The state has not released a regular tally of daily hospital discharges or new admissions. The DPH data team has said they are working to get that information from the Connecticut Hospital Association, but that data has yet to be posted.
Connecticut Coronavirus Deaths
The average number of new deaths has been in a general state of decline in the last month. For the last week the average has been generally flat.
DPH reported 53 new deaths Thursday (marked in orange).
The dotted line on the graph above shows where the 7-day moving average is. That moving average has dropped from about 110 deaths per day in April to about 60 deaths per day now.
In total, 3,582 people in Connecticut have died COVID-related deaths.
The two big spikes in April include deaths that had gone previously unreported.
One of the criteria for reopening was to dramatically increase testing in Connecticut. The goal is to get front-line workers and asymptomatic people tested. The good news is that testing has been steadily increasing since the beginning of May.
Connecticut may hit 200,000 tests performed by Friday. 196,447 tests have been performed in Connecticut to date. 96,190 tests have been performed in May alone.
The seven-week average for tests completed sits at around 7,000 tests per day. In march that seven-week average was under 2,000 tests per day.
The ramping up of testing could lead to a higher number of cases. But in Connecticut, even as testing increases dramatically, the number of new cases has remained generally flat.