NEW ORLEANS — That tropical wave we've been watching called Invest 95 is way out in the Atlantic and is looking better organized on Tuesday. It could become a tropical depression later today.
It looks like it will face some wind shear and dry air in the next few days when it gets near the northeast Caribbean Sea. Those things may cause it to weaken or even fall apart.
Some models right now want to curve the possibly weakened system northward before it gets near the US. It is not a threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this point. We'll watch it of course since it's so far out.
If it becomes a tropical storm, its name would be Josephine, and it would be the earliest tenth storm on record in the Atlantic Basin (the current record is Jose which formed on August 22 in 2005)
Another tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa. Forecast models show this could develop into a low over the next few days in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
There is a pattern called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a fluctuation of favorable and unfavorable states for tropical development across the globe. This favorable/unfavorable pattern shifts every few weeks. For the next few weeks, the more favorable region is over the Pacific, but toward the end of August and into September, this pattern will shift over the Atlantic. That doesn't mean you won't see ANY development over a particular basin when in an "unfavorable" phase, but when in "favorable" it is usually when you see multiple storms at a time and also when you see the chance for more powerful storms. So we'll be more favorable as we near the peak of the season. Stay tuned...
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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BECOME "EXTREMELY ACTIVE"
NOAA released their August hurricane season forecast update and calls for an 'Extremely Active' season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine named storms and two hurricanes.
The reasons for the extremely active season:
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean
• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season - causes tropical waves
• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead
• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin - allows storms to develop
Now is the time to be prepared. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th.
The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 hurricane season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already) and five major hurricanes.
That's an increase of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.
Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005.