GLENDALE, Ariz. — The UConn men’s basketball team has been elite all year and enters the Final Four in Arizona playing its best ball of the season.
Thus far in the NCAA Tournament, the No. 1 overall seed has beaten opponents by an average of more than 27 points and has held a lead of at least 30 in all four of its March Madness games.
Saturday, at 8:49 p.m. on TBS, TNT and truTV, the Huskies (35-3) face a new challenger – the upstart Alabama Crimson Tide, who are appearing in their first-ever Final Four. UConn is a prohibitive favorite to win the national semifinal, but Alabama (25-11) certainly provides obstacles.
Get to know the Crimson Tide
UConn has the most efficient offense in the country, according to KenPom, but Alabama isn’t far behind, ranking third in the nation. Alabama’s greatest strength is its up-tempo style and strong perimeter shooting, which led it to the highest-scoring offense in the country.
Over the course of beating No. 13 seed Charleston, No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, No. 1 seed North Carolina and No. 6 seed Clemson, Alabama averaged just shy of 90 points per game. Through those four games, the Crimson Tide connected from deep 48 times while shooting an impressive 41% from beyond the arc.
Against Charleston, Alabama scored an incredible 109 points. In the second half against Clemson, with a trip to the Final Four on the line in a close game, the Crimson Tide nailed 10 three-pointers. Alabama is led by senior guard Mark Sears, who averaged 21.5 points per game this year. During the NCAA Tournament, he has hit 17 threes and averaged 24.3 points per game en route to being named the Most Outstanding Player of the West Regional.
While UConn prefers to play slow, and has the No. 315 ranked temp in the country, Alabama plays at lighting speed and scores nearly all its points at the rim or behind the three-point line. Coached by Nate Oats, a rising star with a deep connection to UConn head coach Dan Hurley, the Crimson Tide won’t be intimidated when they play the juggernaut that is UConn.
How UConn wins and covers the 11.5-point spread
First and foremost, for UConn to win tonight the Huskies’ guards must improve their three-point shooting. Twice in the NCAA Tournament, UConn has connected from distance just three times in a game. Against Alabama’s high-powered offense, a poor shooting night could put the Huskies’ dream season in jeopardy. It begins with guards Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton, an AP First-Team All-American, and continues with forward Alex Karaban. All three players must come ready to shoot.
While Alabama’s offense is one of the game’s best, its defense is far from it. Alabama’s scoring defense is ranked 346th in the country. Only Write State, DePaul, Arkansas Pine Bluff, VMA and Houston Christian were worse this year. As mentioned, UConn has the nation’s most efficient offense. There is potential for the Huskies to have a field day playing against the Crimson Tide’s underperforming defense.
While Sears is a dynamic scorer, UConn has one of the best, if not the best, perimeter defenders in the country in freshman guard Stephon Castle, who is all but destined to be a top pick in the NBA Draft when the season ends. Illinois guard Terrence Shannon Jr. entered the Elite Eight matchup against UConn averaging 23 points per game on the season. With Castle guarding him for most of the game, he scored just eight points last Saturday.
As mentioned, if Alabama isn’t shooting threes, they prefer to drive the ball straight at the hoop. That could be problematic for them considering the presence of 7’2 UConn center Donovan Clingan, who held Illinois to zero of 19 on shots he contested in the Elite Eight in the process of becoming the Most Outstanding Player of the East Region. Clingan, a sophomore, is also expected to be a top NBA draft pick.
If Castle locks down Sears on the perimeter and Clingan prevents the Crimson Tide from scoring at the rim, UConn should be in good shape tonight. It is imperative, however, that Clingan stays out of foul trouble, as Alabama could have an easier time scoring on UConn’s smaller backup center, Sampson Johnson.
RELATED: Who is Dan Hurley?
UConn is on a 10-game NCAA Tournament winning streak and has won every game by at least 13 points. Alabama’s defense is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide rank 291st in the country in forcing turnovers and 272nd in allowing offensive rebounds. UConn thrives off second chance points and not turning the ball over. This will be an extremely difficult game for Alabama to win, but anything is possible in March Madness.
If UConn looks to avoid the upset and play for a national championship on Monday night, the team must play to its identity, as Hurley has repeated often throughout the year. Alabama hopes to keep it tight and provide the Huskies with their first close battle in nearly a month tonight, but UConn, plane issues and all, should be ready to roll when the ball is tipped.
Prediction: UConn 79 – Alabama 70
Dalton Zbierski is a digital content producer at FOX61 News. He can be reached at dzbierski@FOX61.com.
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