GLENDALE, Ariz. — With the Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in Arizona just days away, here are some keys for both teams heading into Sunday.
The matchup has the best offense in the AFC going up against the best offense in the NFC, so in some way or another, both teams' defenses will have to figure out a way to slow them down. Using next-gen stats gives us an idea of how.
The first point of order for the Eagles: force Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to throw deep.
Right away one would be skeptical of this notion as Mahomes has one of the best arms in football, but he's not throwing the ball deep anymore. In fact, on passes of 20 or more yards, this season Mahomes posted the lowest clip of his career.
So what do you do if you're the Eagles?
First, you apply pressure. This is something the Philly front seven does better than any team in the league.
Second, you take Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce out of the equation by playing man and putting multiple guys on him. Kelce averages the most yards per route of any tight end playing against zone coverage. If you play zone, Mahomes and Kelce will find the soft spot.
The Eagles' tight end Dallas Goedert is the second-best in the league against the zone.
The second key to the game is for the Chiefs as it may be wise to play zone. The Eagles have a lot of guys who can win battles against the press, and none better than AJ Brown. Brown averaged more yards against the press than any other receiver in football.
But it's not just Brown, as the Eagles have Devonta Smith and Quez Watkins who can win foot races if left alone. But for the Chiefs, not playing the press means getting away from their bread and butter. Over the last five seasons, Kansas City has ranked either first or second in the NFL in most times the defense has aligned in press coverage. These are just strategies based on stats, but it's worth pointing out that the two NFL teams who did the best job at defending the pass as a whole this year are the Eagles at number one and the Chiefs at number two, so they seem to have the air game figured out.
This brings us to the ground game, specifically to the weak side attack.
The Eagles had three weak-side rushing touchdowns in the NFC Championship game, which is the third time this year they've accomplished that.
Including the playoffs, Eagles running backs have taken the ball to the weak side on 57% of carries this year. That's the highest rate in the next-gen stats era, but Kansas City is right behind them, separated by 1.6%. Just when you think you have the passing attack figured out, both these teams will sneak a weak side run and burn you on the ground.
That's what makes these offenses so challenging to defend. Both teams can beat you in so many different ways.
This should be a fun matchup on Sunday and those are your keys to the game.
Jonah Karp is the sports director at FOX61 News. He can be reached at jkarp@fox61.com. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
Daniel Dashefsky is a digital content producer at FOX61 News. He can be reached at ddashefsky@fox61.com.
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